Industry Analysis
The AI compute arms race is fundamentally reshaping the memory stack: HBM has evolved from a GPU accessory into a system-level bottleneck, forcing TSMC to prioritize CoWoS capacity for HBM3E and indirectly constrain logic chip allocations. While U.S.-led export controls don’t explicitly target HBM, equipment licensing delays have extended Micron’s fab ramp timelines in Taiwan, China and Japan, inflating compliance costs by over 15%. Facing SK Hynix’s early-mover advantage in HBM4 standardization, Samsung may accelerate GDDR7 as an IP-avoidance alternative. Over the next 18 months, a structural HBM supply deficit—exceeding 20%—will empower Micron, as exclusive supplier to NVIDIA’s GB300, to push DRAM gross margins toward 55%. However, by late 2027, YMTC’s hybrid bonding breakthroughs could trigger aggressive pricing pressure.
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