Industry Analysis
The AI infrastructure frenzy is triggering a technical cascade: HBM’s demand for near-3nm packaging is forcing Micron into tighter CoWoS capacity alliances with TSMC, while NAND regains strategic relevance as SSDs serve as cache layers in AI clusters. The EU Chips Act’s localization mandates and ongoing U.S. export controls to China are inflating supply chain risk premiums. Samsung and SK Hynix will aggressively ramp HBM3E output to corner Micron in the high-end segment, while Western Digital may spin off SanDisk to unlock valuation. Historically, DRAM prices surging 300% year-over-year mirror the 2017–2018 bubble peak. With AI server capex likely peaking by 2027, the next 12–24 months will bring dual pressures of inventory correction and generational tech transition—only players with advanced packaging capabilities and geopolitical neutrality will survive the downturn.
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