Industry Analysis
The latest U.S. pressure on ASML isn’t really about EUV shipments—it’s about disrupting China’s entire advanced semiconductor ecosystem before it becomes self-sustaining. Even without any EUVs in China, Washington is shifting from equipment bans to full-stack technological decoupling, targeting even High-NA EUV tools still in development. This forces Chinese foundries like SMIC to abandon sub-5nm roadmaps and resort to chiplet stacking on mature nodes, increasing die size and power consumption. Compliance overhead will degrade ASML’s DUV service agility in China, opening doors for Tokyo Electron and Nikon in the >28nm segment. Over the next 12–24 months, extended tool lead times and surging secondhand DUV prices will become structural, while China’s accelerated SSX600 lithography program may catalyze a parallel, non-U.S. supply chain.
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