ASML Holding (ASML) Stock Looks Fully Valued After A 46% Three Month Run - simplywall.st

ASML Holding (ASML) has shown strong stock performance, with a 46.31% gain over the past three months, reflecting market optimism about its future prospects. However, despite its current P/E ratio of ... Read original →

ASML’s 46% stock surge in three months appears to have front-run near-term fundamentals. Despite a P/E of 66.2x—below peer averages—the valuation assumes flawless execution in an increasingly volatile environment. Its EUV monopoly remains unchallenged, yet customer concentration at TSMC, Samsung, and Intel creates acute demand sensitivity. Technically, High-NA EUV delays are already forcing NVIDIA and others to revise advanced-node roadmaps. Geopolitically, tightening U.S.-Dutch export controls inflate service costs and erode ASML’s foothold in mainland China, which contributes ~15% of revenue. Competitors like Applied Materials and Lam Research are pivoting aggressively toward mature-node equipment to hedge against capex swings in leading-edge logic. Over the next 12–24 months, the sector faces a dual correction: equipment inventory drawdown and foundry capacity rebalancing. Without scalable High-NA EUV deployment by 2027, ASML’s premium multiples will likely compress sharply.