Industry Analysis
ASML’s de facto monopoly in EUV lithography is triggering a structural reshaping of the semiconductor tech stack: leading foundries in Taiwan, China, South Korea, and the U.S. are pre-committing to multi-year tool deliveries, intensifying industry-wide capex. This concentration heightens geopolitical compliance risks—tightening Dutch export controls and U.S. CHIPS Act localization mandates subject ASML’s supply chain to dual regulatory scrutiny, inflating operational costs. Rivals like Applied Materials and Lam Research, unable to contest EUV dominance, are pivoting toward mature-node tools and advanced packaging to carve defensible niches. Over the next 12–24 months, AI infrastructure demand will sustain EUV momentum, yet overreliance on a single supplier will accelerate customer-led efforts in High-NA alternatives or chiplet-based scaling, subtly eroding ASML’s pricing leverage.
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