ASML Shares Are Up 53% in 2026. Is the Semiconductor Stock a Buy Now? - Morningstar

ASML's remarkable 53% stock surge in 2026 has sparked widespread market debate about semiconductor investment prospects. As the world's leading semiconductor equipment manufacturer, ASML's EUV lithogr... Read original →

ASML’s 53% stock surge in 2026 reflects AI-driven 3nm ramp-up, but masks a looming technology cliff. As the sole enabler of sub-3nm nodes, its EUV systems have locked TSMC (Taiwan, China) and NVIDIA into dependency, yet extended delivery lead times now bottleneck advanced capacity. U.S. export controls on China compel ASML to build costly European redundancy, inflating production expenses by over 15%. While Nikon can’t challenge EUV dominance, it’s capturing mature-node immersion lithography share under U.S. backing. Over the next 18 months, delayed High-NA EUV rollout and supply chain fragmentation will squeeze ASML between insufficient high-end demand and eroding mid-tier margins. The current valuation assumes >25% annual growth—far exceeding historical equipment sector norms—making it vulnerable to sentiment shifts.