Industry Analysis
The valuation gap between ASML and Lam Research reflects a deeper tension between lithography dominance and manufacturing flexibility. While EUV remains critical for leading-edge logic, the AI chip boom is accelerating demand for 3D integration and HBM, where Lam’s etch and deposition tools see surging utilization. Geopolitical compliance costs are now structural: U.S. export controls not only dampen mature-node capex but also push foundries in Taiwan, China and Korea toward DUV-based multi-patterning flows to sidestep restrictions—boosting Lam’s etch tool redundancy. ASML’s service revenue provides stability, yet its EUV output is bottlenecked by Dutch licensing, limiting responsiveness to non-traditional AI chip buyers like cloud hyperscalers. Over the next 12–24 months, as HBM4 and CoWoS ramp, equipment demand will shift from node-centric scaling to holistic integration efficiency—favoring Lam’s modular toolset and stronger customer lock-in for near-term upside.
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