Industry Analysis
Capacity expansion is less about scale and more about securing technological positioning. The foundry’s doubled profit stems from co-optimizing advanced and mature nodes, shifting upstream equipment demand toward high-margin segments and pressuring EDA/IP vendors to accelerate heterogeneous integration roadmaps. With U.S. and EU chip subsidies poised to taper, over-concentration in any single region inflates compliance costs, especially under overlapping export control regimes. If TSMC and other Taiwan, China-based peers respond with aggressive capex, a price war looms—but their spending is already straining free cash flow. Samsung may instead pivot to asymmetric competition in HBM and AI-custom foundry services. Over the next 18 months, apparent overcapacity will mask acute structural shortages; only leaders with rapid yield ramp-up and deep customer lock-in will thrive, while second-tier players risk idle fabs and eroding margins.
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