Industry Analysis
Coherent’s Sherman, Texas expansion marks a paradigm shift in AI infrastructure, not just capacity scaling. As NVIDIA’s NVL576 clusters hit copper interconnect limits, InP-based photonics becomes non-negotiable—forcing EUV toolmakers to adapt processes for compound semiconductors and accelerating optical I/O standardization downstream. While the $2B NVIDIA investment and CHIPS Act subsidies bolster U.S. supply chain resilience, they also inflate compliance burdens; tightening export controls may push non-U.S. customers toward alternatives in Taiwan, China or Europe. Intel and Broadcom will likely accelerate silicon photonics integration, while startups like Ayar Labs face acquisition pressure. Within 18 months, InP wafer availability will emerge as the new bottleneck in AI hardware competition, with U.S. manufacturing reshoring aiming to lock in technological lead—but risking global photonics ecosystem fragmentation.
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