Industry Analysis
China’s potential limited easing on H200 imports isn’t just a market rebound—it’s accelerating a structural split in the AI semiconductor stack. While Entegris gains from renewed EUV and 3nm capex optimism, the real shift lies in China’s push for inference ASICs by firms like DeepSeek, eroding Nvidia’s long-term leverage. Compliance costs rise under quota-based licensing, breeding supply chain inefficiencies and arbitrage risks. SK Hynix’s oversubscribed ADR signals strong HBM demand, yet Micron’s possible pivot away from HBM4 could trigger capacity misallocation. Over the next 18 months, the AI chip ecosystem will bifurcate into 'compliant channels' and 'sovereign stacks,' with TSMC (Taiwan, China) and Samsung locked in a new front of advanced packaging rivalry driven by geopolitical tech decoupling.
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