Industry Analysis
The real disruption of chiplets isn't fragmentation—it's the migration of competitive leverage from lithography to advanced packaging. For two decades the industry orbited EUV; for the next five, CoWoS and EMIB capacity allocation will replace ASML's order book as the true pricing mechanism.
The supply-chain fracture is already visible: EDA toolchains are being forced from monolithic co-design into heterogeneous multi-die orchestration, KGD testing shifts from optional to existential, and UCIe's open standard conceals proprietary moats buried in every vendor's private interconnect. The deeper variable: mixing 28nm/14nm chiplets with 3nm core dies deconstructs the definition of advanced process itself. Export-control logic will be forced to rewrite—restricting a single 5nm die is tractable; restricting a system-level function assembled from mature-process dies is a granularity problem regulators haven't solved.
Strategically, Intel is staking Foveros+EMIB on a packaging-as-process narrative, AMD has validated chiplet economics at MI300 scale, and NVIDIA has locked CoWoS capacity into a second lithography bottleneck. TSMC's role has quietly shifted from foundry to system architect.
In the next 18 months the binding constraint won't be design. It will sit at the intersection of test and packaging. Whoever pushes KGD yield from 95% to 99.5% collects the yield tax of the chiplet era.
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