Here's Why I Will Never Pay Anywhere Near $1,100 for Micron Stock - The Globe and Mail

Micron Technology, a leading memory chip supplier, plays a critical role in the AI boom, with its high-bandwidth memory (HBM) becoming a core component in data center AI hardware stacks. The company's... Read original →

Micron’s AI-driven surge hinges on HBM3E/HBM4’s tight integration with GPU training stacks, but this technical tailwind is peaking. NVIDIA’s upcoming Blackwell Ultra already incorporates more on-package SRAM to reduce reliance on external HBM—eroding Micron’s leverage in inference workloads. Meanwhile, Samsung and SK Hynix are racing to scale HBM4 output, with Taiwan, China-based OSATs expanding capacity; HBM supply could overshoot demand by 30% in 2027, triggering steep price erosion. U.S. export controls offer short-term protection but accelerate Chinese customers’ shift toward CXMT and other domestic alternatives, undermining Micron’s long-term global footprint. As enterprises pivot to cost-efficient small AI models, HBM demand growth will likely collapse within 12–24 months. At a 25.6x P/E, Micron’s valuation assumes unsustainable earnings—fair value probably lies below $800.