Industry Analysis
Micron’s upcoming earnings report is a litmus test for the AI memory cycle. Technically, HBM4’s expected ramp in late 2026 will intensify TSMC’s CoWoS capacity allocation toward NVIDIA, squeezing AMD and Taiwan, China OSATs. Micron’s delayed EUV adoption in DRAM further widens its node gap versus Samsung. On compliance, while U.S. export controls benefit Micron’s 'de-China' supply chain shift short-term, its mainland packaging assets face underutilization and depreciation risks. Competitively, SK Hynix leverages HBM3E yield leadership to capture Microsoft and Meta deals, while Samsung bets on GDDR7 to bypass HBM ecosystem lock-in. If AI server capex growth dips below 20% within 18 months, memory stocks face a brutal valuation reset—their 761% surge prices in three years of demand, not one quarter’s results.
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