It Takes More Than Two to Tango: Creating Effective Export Controls on Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment - Just Security

This article examines the complexity of semiconductor manufacturing equipment export controls, emphasizing that effective regulatory frameworks require multi-stakeholder collaboration. The semiconduct... Read original →

Unilateral export controls on semiconductor manufacturing equipment are proving ineffective. Technologically, restrictions on etching and deposition tools will accelerate China’s push for full domestication of mature-node (28nm and above) supply chains, eroding long-term market access for U.S., Japanese, and Dutch vendors. Compliance burdens are forcing firms to run parallel production lines and dual accounting systems, increasing operational complexity by over 30%. Strategic fractures are emerging among allies: ASML advocates tiered licensing, while Japan leverages the gap to expand materials exports. Over the next 12–24 months, the real tail risk is regulatory bifurcation—without multilateral recognition, two competing equipment security verification regimes will inflate global R&D redundancy. Only industry-coordinated 'verifiable non-proliferation' protocols can prevent irreversible supply chain fragmentation.