Leverage without independence: The Netherlands and the geopolitics of semiconductor chokepoints - The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies

The Netherlands' semiconductor leverage is structurally parasitic on US export-control architecture. ASML's EUV monopoly rests on Zeiss optics, American software stacks, and Western alliance consensus — remove any single pillar and the chokepoint evaporates. Technical cascade: EUV denial pushes advanced-node fabs toward DUV multi-patterning, inflating wafer costs 30-40% and compressing margins below 5nm. It simultaneously accelerates SSMB light-source R&D and domestic photoresist programs, yet no viable 3nm substitute exists within 24 months. Compliance drag: The 2023 Dutch EUV ban has already shifted enforcement costs downstream. Compliance overhead at major foundries has climbed from roughly 5% to 12% of capex, with supply-chain audit cycles stretching past 90 days — a hidden tax exceeding tariff impact. Competitive response: Nikon is exploiting the DUV window to capture 28nm-plus share. More critically, US BIS will likely extend controls to ArF immersion within 12 months, further eroding The Hague's discretionary space. Long-tail: Within 18 months, the true chokepoint migrates from lithography to advanced packaging (CoWoS) and EDA. The Netherlands' leverage window is closing, not widening.