Industry Analysis
The AI compute arms race has catapulted HBM to the apex of the semiconductor value chain—but at the cost of overheating the tech cycle. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron’s dominance in 3nm EUV-based HBM3E gives them near-monopoly access to NVIDIA’s data center GPU ecosystem, fueling the DRAM ETF’s surge. Yet with 60% of enterprises pivoting to leaner AI models, HBM demand may peak as early as 2027. Compounding this, TSMC’s CoWoS capacity ramp and aggressive memory fab expansions in Korea and Taiwan, China risk triggering a supply glut reminiscent of the 2018 DRAM crash. U.S. export controls on advanced packaging tools further threaten non-U.S. players’ yield economics. Over the next 12–24 months, the market will pivot from scarcity to structural oversupply—only firms mastering heterogeneous integration and near-memory computing will survive the reckoning.
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