METI Minister Vows Support for Power Semiconductor Consolidation as Talks Among Three Japanese Firms Slip to Autumn or Later - finance.biggo.com

METI's explicit endorsement is not a neutral policy nudge—it is a return to Japan's state-guided consolidation playbook, the same gyōsei shidō that reshaped steel and displays in the 1970s–80s. The slip to autumn is the real tell: the three firms remain locked in disputes over SiC epitaxy IP valuation, module-line ownership, and board control. The technical stakes are generational, not incremental. Japan's two-decade IGBT dominance is being eroded at the SiC substrate and epi layer by Wolfspeed and mainland Chinese players such as Sanan and StarPower. A merged entity could close the loop from wafer to module, yet the substrate gap remains a structural dependency. On compliance, METI's involvement effectively raises the regulatory bar for any foreign acquirer, creating a de facto protectionist moat. The cost: a three-to-five-year integration window in which duplicate R&D and underutilized capacity inflate per-unit pricing, handing EV OEMs and industrial drive buyers a rare leverage window. Competitively, Infineon and STMicro will accelerate their own M&A to defend scale. Chinese SiC makers will exploit the consolidation vacuum to poach legacy Japanese customers. Twelve-to-twenty-four-month call: expect a "shell first, substance later" structure—equity merger closes, but true technical synergy will not be quantifiable before 2027.