Michael Burry Warns Semiconductor Rally Marks 'Beginning of the End' - 조선일보

Michael Burry, known for his role in the movie 'The Big Short,' has issued a stark warning about the current semiconductor rally, calling it 'the beginning of the end.' Despite strong market performan... Read original →

Burry’s warning is grounded in structural fragility. The rally hinges on transient AI training demand for HBM and 3nm logic, yet NAND/DRAM spot prices are softening—exposing supply-demand imbalances masked by long-term contracts. Technically, EUV delivery bottlenecks delay advanced node ramp, while edge-based AI inference erodes sustained datacenter memory demand. Geopolitically, U.S.-Korea-Japan supply chain alignment raises compliance costs, especially for firms like SK Hynix reliant on packaging capacity in Taiwan, China. Strategically, Samsung may accelerate capital recycling ahead of SK Hynix’s ADR listing, pivoting to mature nodes; Micron could undercut with HBM4 to infiltrate NVIDIA’s ecosystem. Over the next 12–24 months, the sector will shift from AI-driven hype to cash-flow scrutiny, likely triggering ETF outflows and inventory write-downs—only players with in-house equipment and heterogeneous integration capabilities will survive the reckoning.