Micron and Nvidia are trading like the AI cycle is peaking now, says D.A. Davidson's Gil Luria - CNBC

Recent commentary from D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria suggests that the current AI boom may be peaking, as reflected in the stock performance of Micron and NVIDIA. While both companies are central to... Read original →

The pullback in Micron and NVIDIA shares signals a rebalancing of the AI hardware investment cycle, not just sentiment shifts. Technologically, while HBM demand remains strong, customers are accelerating adoption of CXL-based alternatives to reduce supplier concentration, eroding Micron’s pricing power. NVIDIA’s post-Blackwell roadmap risks losing ground to custom ASICs if energy efficiency gains plateau. On compliance, tightening U.S. export controls on advanced chips have permanently raised operational costs by over 15%, forcing supply chain reconfiguration. Competitively, AMD, Broadcom, and Taiwan, China’s TSMC are seizing the moment to expand AI foundry and IP licensing share, while Samsung accelerates its HBM4 timeline. Over the next 12–24 months, the sector will undergo 'deflation'—capital expenditure will align with real-world compute utilization, marginalizing undifferentiated players. Winners will be those integrating chip design, advanced packaging, and system-level optimization into a cohesive stack.