Micron Earnings Have Never Looked Better. Start Worrying. - Yahoo Finance

Micron Technology's recent earnings have been exceptionally strong, with its stock rising nearly ninefold over the past year and market capitalization surpassing $120 billion—marking the largest singl... Read original →

Micron’s earnings peak is a classic cyclical warning sign. The HBM shortage has inflated valuations, but the technological ripple effect is already unfolding: AI accelerators' aggressive adoption of HBM3e and upcoming HBM4 is pushing DRAM scaling to physical limits, forcing equipment and materials suppliers to accelerate EUV and hybrid bonding integration—raising industry-wide capex barriers. On compliance, U.S. export controls on China increase Micron’s supply chain redundancy costs despite its low China revenue exposure, while Korean rivals exploit geopolitical buffers to expand shipments to Chinese cloud providers. Samsung and SK Hynix, committing over $75B annually in capex, are effectively using scale to squeeze Micron’s HBM yield ramp window. Over the next 12–24 months, once HBM supply-demand rebalances—and NAND capacity floods the market post-recovery—the memory sector will face a textbook 'volume surge, price crash' long-tail effect. Today’s seemingly cheap 9.6x forward P/E already prices in the next inventory correction.