Industry Analysis
Micron’s surge stems from structural AI-driven HBM demand colliding with a constrained DRAM supply cycle. Technologically, HBM3E/HBM4 adoption is forcing TSMC to expand CoWoS capacity and pushing Samsung and SK hynix to accelerate EUV integration at the 3nm DRAM node—raising industry-wide capex barriers. Geopolitically, while U.S. CHIPS Act subsidies help, export controls limit Micron’s HBM sales to China, inadvertently strengthening its global pricing power as Chinese buyers scramble for alternatives. With Micron’s output sold out through 2026, Samsung may lock in NVIDIA and Microsoft via long-term deals, while SK hynix targets the AI PC segment with LPDDR5X. Even as new capacity comes online, an HBM supply gap of over 10% will likely persist through 2027, supporting Micron’s valuation—but a post-2027 oversupply risk looms.
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