Micron Technology (MU) Stock Could Be 123% Overvalued Before Its June 24 Earnings - simplywall.st

Micron Technology's stock has surged recently due to strong AI-driven memory demand, structural supply shortages, and full commitment to high-bandwidth memory (HBM) capacity. However, Simply Wall St a... Read original →

Micron’s valuation bubble stems from linear extrapolation of HBM demand while underestimating technology diffusion speed and geopolitical friction. Technically, the HBM3e-to-HBM4 transition demands tight integration of EUV and 3nm-class packaging, inflating AI chip stack costs and forcing TSMC and Samsung to prioritize CoWoS capacity—crowding out logic wafer resources. On compliance, U.S. export controls on China may shield Micron’s near-term China revenue but will inflate long-term supply chain redundancy costs. Rivals like SK Hynix have already secured NVIDIA’s next-gen HBM slots, while Intel leverages EMIB to infiltrate the HBM ecosystem, threatening Micron’s exclusivity. Over the next 12–24 months, any AI capex slowdown or faster-than-expected HBM yield ramp could trigger a double valuation contraction. The real tailwind isn’t cycle smoothing—it’s leadership in CPO-era memory-compute convergence.