Nvidia excludes China from its outlook while citing analyst estimates of US$1 trillion in hyperscaler capex by 2027

Nvidia’s exclusion of China from its datacenter revenue outlook signals a strategic pivot from compliance caution to active decoupling. Technically, this accelerates China’s push for domestic AI chips, yet firms like Cambricon and Ascend remain bottlenecked by restricted access to sub-7nm packaging and HBM supply chains, widening the performance gap. Compliance uncertainty—even with sporadic export approvals—forces hyperscalers to hoard legacy A800/H800 units or shift to custom ASICs, inflating capex and reducing deployment agility. AMD may nibble at the edges with MI300, but its immature software stack limits traction; Huawei, meanwhile, leverages full-stack autonomy to lock in state-backed clients. Over the next 12–24 months, China risks becoming a 'high-performance compute island,' diverging from global AI infrastructure trends and eroding its models’ international competitiveness.