Industry Analysis
NVIDIA’s strategic pivot toward optical networking signals that AI performance bottlenecks are shifting from compute to interconnect bandwidth. Coherent’s new Texas fab doesn’t just localize laser and silicon photonics supply—it catalyzes co-optimization across upstream materials (e.g., indium phosphide) and downstream packaging (CPO). U.S. CHIPS Act subsidies, coupled with geopolitical friction, are forcing firms to internalize supply chain security costs, raising compliance-driven operational barriers. Competitors like Lumentum and Broadcom will likely accelerate acquisitions of photonic startups to counter Coherent’s vertical integration. Within 18 months, optical modules will leap from 800G to 1.6T, making co-designed electro-optical architectures the new moat—standalone chip or optics plays will rapidly lose relevance.
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