Industry Analysis
The Fed’s hawkish stance is triggering a risk repricing that forces the AI chip bubble into technical correction. NVIDIA and Micron’s sharp pullback reflects not just valuation adjustments but also exposes supply chain fragility from over-concentration of sub-3nm capacity at TSMC (Taiwan, China). A slowdown in AI server orders could depress EUV utilization, hitting ASML and downstream OSATs. Samsung and SK Hynix are pivoting to HBM4 R&D to hedge against DRAM cyclicality, while Intel accelerates 18A node client adoption to break the NVIDIA-TSMC duopoly. Over the next 12–24 months, IPO-driven liquidity pressure from firms like Anthropic will shift capital from raw compute hardware toward energy-efficient, software-co-optimized deployments—suggesting the capex peak for high-power GPU clusters may already be behind us.
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