NVIDIA (NVDA) On Cooling Momentum And An AI Narrative That Still Looks Undervalued - simplywall.st

NVIDIA (NVDA) has recently experienced a pullback in its stock price, with a 9% decline over the past month and 8.6% over the past week. Despite this short-term weakness, the company has shown strong ... Read original →

NVIDIA’s recent pullback reflects market skepticism over AI capex sustainability, not deteriorating fundamentals. Technically, its Blackwell architecture is forcing deeper integration of 3nm and EUV lithography into advanced packaging—pressuring TSMC (Taiwan, China) to ramp CoWoS capacity and raising cost barriers for AMD and Broadcom. Geopolitically, U.S. export controls on B200 chips reinforce NVIDIA’s pricing power in compliant markets. Competitively, AMD’s MI300 gains Azure traction but lags in software by ~18 months; Broadcom avoids training battles via VMware-integrated enterprise inference. The real risk over the next 12–24 months isn’t competition—it’s hyperscalers like Meta or Google hitting CAPEX ceilings, which could fracture GPU demand. The implied 76% upside isn’t about unit growth; it’s a bet on monopolistic AI infrastructure rents.