NVIDIA or Marvell Technology: Which Stock Has More Upside? - Trefis

This article by the Trefis team compares NVIDIA (NVDA) and Marvell (MRVL) in terms of investment potential. While Marvell's stock surged 15% in the past week, it lags behind NVIDIA in revenue growth, ... Read original →

NVIDIA’s dominance stems not just from surging AI chip demand but from its vertically integrated stack—from CUDA to 3nm advanced packaging—creating an insurmountable moat. Marvell, despite solid monthly design-win rates in custom connectivity chips, lacks end-to-end control, weakening its bargaining power for TSMC’s (Taiwan, China) scarce 3nm EUV capacity. Tightening U.S. export controls will disproportionately burden secondary players like Marvell with higher compliance costs and supply chain redundancy, while NVIDIA’s strategic indispensability increases its odds of regulatory carve-outs. Over the next 12–24 months, datacenter migration to Blackwell and beyond will widen the gross margin per petaflop gap. Competitors like AMD and Intel may accelerate IP acquisitions to bypass ecosystem barriers, yet they cannot erode NVIDIA’s pricing power in generative AI infrastructure. Betting on Marvell based on short-term valuation dips ignores the semiconductor industry’s winner-take-all reality.