Nvidia sales growth looks like Cisco. That’s not necessarily a bad thing. - MSN

Recent analysis has drawn parallels between NVIDIA's sales growth trajectory and that of Cisco during its 1990s peak. According to Pat Tschosik, chief thematic strategist at Ned Davis Research Group, ... Read original →

NVIDIA’s renewed sales acceleration isn’t just an AI demand rebound—it signals a fundamental reshaping of the compute stack. Upstream, TSMC’s CoWoS capacity and HBM supply constrain delivery; downstream, xAI and peers, flush with IPO liquidity, are shifting from GPU reliance to custom ASICs amid soaring training costs. Geopolitically, U.S. export controls compel NVIDIA to engineer compliance-specific SKUs like A800, inflating operational complexity. AMD’s MI300X and emerging players in Taiwan, China are closing the gap, yet NVIDIA counters by deepening CUDA lock-in—though the EU’s Digital Markets Act threatens that moat. If history echoes Cisco’s cycle, the next 18 months are critical: as AI capex pivots from scale to efficiency, raw compute dominance alone won’t sustain growth.