Industry Analysis
China’s H200 progress signals deeper breakthroughs in domestic 3nm-class packaging and interconnect tech, triggering a supply-chain ripple: TSMC and Samsung will accelerate CoWoS capacity, while EDA vendors reassess China export controls. If the U.S. BIS tightens H200-related IP licensing, NVIDIA faces structural revenue risk in China—but its L20/L40 SKUs already serve as a buffer. Huawei’s Ascend 910B and Cambricon’s MLU590 will seize mid-tier AI training share, yet NVIDIA’s real moat remains CUDA: hardware can be cloned, ecosystems cannot. Over the next 18 months, the AI chip landscape will split into three layers—high-end constrained, mid-range commoditized, edge fragmented—with China likely achieving asymmetric gains first in advanced packaging and Chiplet integration.
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