Prediction: Nvidia's Stock Will Skyrocket in June - The Motley Fool

NVIDIA's stock has underperformed in 2026, rising only about 13%, while the S&P 500 is up 11% and the tech sector is up nearly 25%. Despite this, analysts believe NVIDIA is poised for strong returns, ... Read original →

NVIDIA’s current valuation lag stems from market misreading of AI capex cyclicality. Its 3nm GPUs rely on TSMC’s EUV capacity in Taiwan, China, where U.S.-led export controls on lithography tools have inflated advanced-node costs by over 15%, pushing rivals like AMD and Broadcom toward chiplet-based designs to mitigate node dependency. Geopolitically, proposed U.S. restrictions on re-exporting AI chips like the H20 may limit Middle East deployments but paradoxically strengthen NVIDIA’s pricing power within compliant channels. Over the next 12 months, global data center AI spending will pivot from training to inference—NVIDIA’s CUDA ecosystem already locks in over 80% of the software stack, creating a dual moat of hardware premium and software stickiness. A June confirmation of Blackwell Ultra ramp could propel its forward P/E from 22 to 28, triggering institutional repricing. The real threat isn’t technical—it’s Washington: listing GB200 on the Entity List would force an abrupt AI supply chain realignment.