RAM supply set to worsen, says Micron, as CEO celebrates ‘much higher’ prices - The Register

Micron's CEO publicly anchoring prices at "much higher" levels while flagging worsening supply is not a market update—it is a pricing signal. In an oligopoly where three players control 95% of global DRAM output, this language is engineered to lock in downstream expectations of sustained price escalation. The structural tension is HBM cannibalizing conventional DRAM wafer starts. HBM3E stacking consumes 3 to 4x the wafer area of equivalent DDR5 capacity, and AI accelerator orders have already locked up most of Micron's advanced-node output through 2026. DDR5 and LPDDR5X supply is being strategically compressed—this is not a cyclical dip but a deliberate reallocation of capacity. Samsung and SK Hynix are unlikely to rush into expanding conventional DRAM. The 2017-2018 supercycle taught the industry: an 18-to-24-month buildout cycle means new capacity arrives just as AI demand absorbs it. The rational play is maintaining a tight equilibrium and parking margin in the HBM high-value tier. Over the next 12 to 24 months, absent a sharp AI capex contraction, conventional DRAM faces its most severe supply shortfall since 2018. Micron's HBM first-mover edge and US-based fabs give it a structural compliance advantage in a decoupling world. This is not a cycle. It is a paradigm shift.