Samsung foundry chief sees 2028 profit path as bonus costs mount

Samsung Foundry’s revised profitability timeline to 2028 reveals systemic delays in yield ramp and customer adoption at 3nm and below. Technologically, this stalls supply chain diversification for HBM4 and AI accelerators, deepening reliance on TSMC and reinforcing a monopolar advanced-node ecosystem. Compliance-wise, U.S. CHIPS Act localization mandates—combined with surging Korean energy and labor costs—are structurally inflating operational overhead. Strategically, TSMC can leverage its 2nm GAA lead and triple-site expansion across the U.S., Japan, and Taiwan, China to lock in top-tier clients. If Samsung fails to demonstrate credible yield recovery by end-2026, its foundry share—currently ~12%—could slide into single digits within 24 months, triggering a negative feedback loop of reduced equipment orders and talent attrition.