Industry Analysis
Samsung and SK’s synchronized mega-investments signal a defensive surge against the AI compute arms race. Technically, HBM’s reliance on EUV lithography will strain upstream materials like photoresists and high-purity gases while accelerating intelligent fab adoption to stabilize yields. Despite Korean government subsidies, over-concentration of capacity domestically heightens supply chain fragility amid tightening U.S.-Japan-Netherlands equipment controls. Competitively, TSMC and DRAM makers in Taiwan, China are likely to fast-track CoWoS and HBM3E ramp-ups, while Micron leverages CHIPS Act incentives to lock in North American clients. Within 18 months, this could trigger a global memory capex rebalancing—but if AI server demand falters, Korea’s aggressive HBM expansion risks severe oversupply by 2027, forcing a brutal industry consolidation.
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