Industry Analysis
Samsung’s record Q2 profit marks the inflection point of the AI memory supercycle. Technically, mass production of HBM3E and GDDR7 is forcing TSMC to expand CoWoS capacity while pushing Micron and SK hynix to accelerate TSV stacking yield—creating a ‘memory-logic-packaging’ tech triad. On compliance, tightening U.S. export controls compel Samsung to reassess fab risks in Xi’an and Taiwan, China, making its $100B domestic investment a strategic redundancy play. NVIDIA, though temporarily eclipsed, is regaining leverage via custom HBM interfaces and in-house memory controllers; SK hynix counters with an HBM4 first-mover bet. Over the next 12–24 months, DRAM pricing will grow volatile, but AI server demand ensures sustained HBM premiums, splitting the market: commodity memory reverts to cyclical behavior, while AI-grade memory shifts toward oligopolistic pricing.
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