Industry Analysis
South Korea’s export surge stems not from a broad chip recovery but from AI infrastructure’s acute demand for HBM3e/HBM4. Samsung and SK Hynix, leveraging EUV-enabled 3nm DRAM processes, now effectively monopolize premium HBM supply, tightly coupling with NVIDIA’s Blackwell Ultra platform. This technical lock-in is redefining memory-logic co-design paradigms, pressuring TSMC to accelerate CoWoS-L integration while pushing Micron toward the AI memory periphery. Geopolitically, although U.S. export controls haven’t directly targeted Korea, licensing delays for ASML EUV maintenance parts are inflating fab downtime costs. Over the next 18 months, an early HBM5 rollout could widen Korea’s generational lead—but with nearly 40% of exports tied to AI memory, any slowdown in generative AI capex would trigger a sharp cyclical correction.
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