TSMC forecasts $1.5 trillion global chip market by 2030 - New Electronics

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) forecasts the global chip market will reach $1.5 trillion by 2030, driven primarily by surging demand for artificial intelligence (AI) and high-perfor... Read original →

TSMC’s $1.5 trillion chip market forecast by 2030 is less a projection than a financial codification of the AI compute arms race. Technologically, 2nm and A16 nodes will force cascading upgrades across EDA, EUV photoresists, and CoWoS substrates—advanced packaging is now the true bottleneck for AI chip delivery. Geopolitically, while fabs in the U.S., Japan, and Germany mitigate supply chain risk, they inflate operating costs by over 30%, and CHIPS Act ‘guardrails’ restrict China-bound tech, eroding TSMC’s pricing leverage. Competitively, Samsung and Intel may retreat from general-purpose logic to specialize in HBM or chiplet assembly, avoiding TSMC’s AI ecosystem dominance. Over the next 12–24 months, the 11x surge in AI wafer demand will trigger equipment lead-time inflation, talent wars, and likely spawn third-party CoWoS foundry alliances—marking a paradigm shift from wafer-centric to system-integration-centric manufacturing.