Where Will This Vanguard ETF, Loaded With Nvidia and Broadcom, Be in 10 Years? - The Globe and Mail

This article analyzes the investment outlook for the Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT), which has significantly benefited from its heavy allocations to AI semiconductor leaders like NVIDIA and... Read original →

The explosive growth of AI semiconductors is reshaping the entire value chain. The strong performance of NVIDIA and Broadcom has driven the Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT) to deliver a 24% annualized return over the past decade, fueled by the surge in demand for AI infrastructure. Advanced manufacturing processes like 3nm EUV technology are becoming the new battleground, intensifying global supply chain dynamics. Despite technological gaps between Taiwan, China and the U.S., global semiconductor sales are projected to exceed $2 trillion by 2036, underscoring long-term investment potential. However, increasing competition from companies like Intel and AMD, coupled with uncertainty over AI productivity gains, poses downside risks. In the next 12–24 months, if AI compute demand continues to outpace expectations, VGT could surpass $1,000 per share, but policy risks and supply chain disruptions remain key downside factors.