Industry Analysis
The selloff in Micron and SanDisk reflects a structural slowdown in memory technology scaling. As DRAM and NAND approach physical limits, EUV adoption costs surge without proportional performance gains, eroding capital efficiency. Upstream equipment makers face delayed orders, while downstream clients in servers and smartphones leverage oversupply to negotiate lower prices—squeezing margins from both ends. U.S. export controls on China further inflate compliance and inventory costs, especially for Micron with over 30% revenue exposure there. Samsung and SK Hynix are aggressively advancing HBM3E and CXL-integrated memory to lock in AI server dominance. If Micron fails to ramp sub-1β nodes by 2027, it risks exclusion from high-end ecosystems. Over the next 18 months, only players with advanced packaging capabilities or deep customer integration will survive; others face marginalization or acquisition.
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