Will Nvidia Follow Amazon's Dot-Com Path? Jeremy Grantham Warns Of Brutal Tech Stock Reversal - Benzinga

Renowned investor Jeremy Grantham has issued a warning that NVIDIA may repeat Amazon's internet bubble trajectory, facing a brutal tech stock reversal. This caution has sparked deep market reflection ... Read original →

Grantham’s warning carries weight: NVIDIA’s valuation now exceeds Amazon’s during the dot-com bubble, with AI hype masking execution risk. A market pullback would immediately strain the tech stack—HBM memory, advanced packaging, and TSMC’s CoWoS capacity face demand volatility. U.S. export controls to China force NVIDIA into costly compliance workarounds like the A800/H800 chips, eroding margins. Competitors are seizing the moment: AMD and Intel are fast-tracking MI300 and Gaudi3 to exploit customer concerns over vendor lock-in. Over the next 12–24 months, even if AI demand holds, investor focus will shift from narrative-driven multiples to cash-flow discipline. Only semiconductor firms with genuine unit economics—not just architectural promises—will survive the coming valuation reset.