Industry Analysis
TSMC’s capacity fully booked through 2028 signals AI chip demand has shifted from cyclical surge to structural scarcity. Technically, the CoWoS bottleneck is forcing NVIDIA and AMD to accelerate adoption of alternatives like CoPoS or EMIB-T, spurring co-design innovation in platforms such as Axion and Feynman. On compliance, while the U.S. ITC patent probe poses limited near-term disruption, combined with CHIPS Act localization mandates, it elevates TSMC’s hidden regulatory costs in U.S. fab operations. Strategically, Samsung is leveraging pricing flexibility to court tier-two clients, yet its EUV yield instability leaves it far behind TSMC’s 3nm/2nm dominance; Intel, meanwhile, is betting on EMIB-T to bypass CoWoS dependency. Over the next 12–24 months, tight supply will cement TSMC’s pricing power and catalyze a ‘core-satellite’ packaging ecosystem around partners like Amkor and VisEra.
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